Hello and welcome to the GZero World Podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television.

I'm Ian Bremmer. And today, what would a conflict between China and Taiwan actually look like?

For years, the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been the subject of war games and expert panels.

Meanwhile, the People's Liberation Army has been conducting near-daily military exercises around the island,

and they're larger, louder, and more aggressive than ever before.

In response, Taiwan's pro-independence president, William Lai,

has pledged to boost defense spending,

and in March, laid out 17 wide-ranging strategies to defend the island from Chinese infiltration.

But Lai faces obstacles at home.

Taiwan's government is divided.

The opposition party, softer towards the mainland, controls the legislature,

and any major decisions, especially ones involving

national security, are tough to push through.

The United States now finds itself in the difficult position of trying to deter Beijing

without provoking a fight it doesn't want.

And there's an open question about whether America would indeed defend Taiwan if it were attacked.

The stakes are big. A war in the strait would reshape the world economy,

drag in major powers, potentially triggering the deadliest military conflict in the Asia Pacific since World War II.

So how far can China push and how long can Taiwan hold out before a crisis becomes inevitable? To answer

those questions, I'm joined by Bonnie Lynn. She's director of the China Power Project at the Center

for Strategic and International Studies, one of Washington's top experts on Chinese foreign and defense

policy. We discussed China's growing aggression in the Taiwan Strait,

...