Sucker’s Rally or the Worst Is Over?

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 786 Ratings

🗓️ 2 August 2022

⏱️ 18 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Chainalysis and FTX US. In today’s episode, NLW looks at June and July as paired months that remade the market landscape. He looks at market data, key events in crypto and key events in macro to paint a picture of where things stand heading into August. The key question he explores is whether we’re in a “sucker’s rally” or the worst really is behind us. - Nexo is a security-first platform where you can buy, exchange and borrow against your crypto. The company safeguards your crypto by relying on five key fundamentals including real-time auditing and insurance on custodial assets. Learn more at nexo.io. - Chainalysis is the blockchain data platform. We provide data, software, services and research to government agencies, exchanges, financial institutions and insurance and cybersecurity companies. Our data powers investigation, compliance and market intelligence software that has been used to solve some of the world’s most high-profile criminal cases. For more information, visit www.chainalysis.com. - FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today. - “The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and research by Scott Hill. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsors is “The Now” by Aaron Sprinkle. Image credit: sesame/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.2	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:14.8	The breakdown is sponsored by nexo.io, chain aliasis, and FtX, and produced and distributed by CoinDesk.
0:22.7	What's gone on, guys? It is Monday, August 1st, and today we are doing a bit of a July
0:28.9	recap. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe
0:34.4	to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dig deeper into
0:38.4	the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to
0:43.2	bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Also, a disclosure as always. In addition to them being a sponsor
0:49.3	of the show, I also work with FTX. Now, I don't always do a recap of every month, but sometimes I think
0:58.0	it just makes sense. Some months are so full of details and trends that I think it's worth
1:03.8	taking the time to view them in aggregate. And in some ways today is actually a look at not just
1:09.9	July, but June and July, how they
1:12.5	differed, how they were part of the same story, and where it leaves us going into August.
1:17.7	The TLDR on July, I believe, was one, continued fallout from everything that happened in June
1:24.1	in particular, but also two, glimpses of market resilience, or at least a need
1:30.3	to shift tone, sentiment, and narrative. So given that assessment of fallout from June, that's
1:36.8	probably where we need to begin our story. Let's look at both of these months first in the context
1:42.4	of market performance. June was the worst
1:46.0	month ever for Bitcoin. During the month of June, Bitcoin fell 40%. The previous worst month for
1:53.1	Bitcoin had been November 2018 when Bitcoin was down 37%. Q2 overall was the worst quarter ever for
2:00.7	Bitcoin, with the asset down 56%. But of course,
2:04.7	it wasn't just Bitcoin in crypto. The S&P 500 also recorded its worst half in 52 years down
	...

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