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Wall Street Breakfast

Strong economic data not necessarily bad for equity market

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

Business News, News, Business, Investing

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 13 April 2024

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Yimin Xu of Cestrian Capital Research on past easing cycles, strong economic data and Fed rate cuts (0:40). Sticky inflation and bond market equilibrium (2:30). Attractive 10-year yields (5:00). This is an abridged conversation from Seeking Alpha's Investing Experts podcast.

Episode transcripts: seekingalpha.com/wsb

Show links:
Nasdaq, S&P shed about 1% each, Dow drops more than 400 points after hot CPI
Riddled With Rates
Hot inflation may not be a bump, balance sheet runoff pace discussed: FOMC minutes

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Transcript

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0:16.4

Yaman Shoe. Shoe. Welcome to Seeking Alpha. You contribute to Seeking Alpha News. You're on YouTube with Sestrian Capital Research, which by the way if that sounds familiar

0:20.7

we've had Alex King who runs the service on a few times before.

0:25.8

How are you looking at the markets, you know, a lot of talk about the Fed always and particularly

0:32.2

recently? How are you looking at things as Fed always and particularly recently.

0:33.2

How are you looking at things as broad

0:35.8

and as specific as you want to get?

0:38.6

A lot of investors are worried that strong data

0:42.2

means the Fed is not going to cut anytime soon and therefore that's bad for the

0:46.3

equity market. But actually historically speaking and if you look at the past easing cycles, there had been one time in 1995, where the GDP was growing very smoothly.

1:01.0

It came down slightly from 1994, but it was still very strong.

1:05.7

The Fed was slightly worried about inflation, which was coming down from high

1:09.7

seven, you know, high figures in the early 90s but actually the the were willing to wait for the

1:18.4

soft inflation and for sorry for the soft landing and for the inflation data to come down and cut much later than the market

1:26.0

than what you would expect.

1:28.0

And what happened was that equity market rallied because a good economy would translate into stronger earnings and it doesn't all is not always a bad thing.

1:42.0

When we see aggressive fed cuts, it sometimes means that it's driven by recessionary

1:49.2

fears, which translates to slower growth and slower earnings.

1:53.0

That's not always a good thing for the equity market.

1:56.0

So I think at this point in time, good news is actually good news at this moment.

2:01.0

It's only when the FES is really actually starting to cut too late and

2:06.4

we're seeing bad data coming our way without effect doing something drastic about it, that we

2:12.2

should begin to worry. So that's come my feel for the

...

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