Strait of Hormuz will BREAK oil markets! | Matt Smith, Kpler
Full Signal
Phil Rosen
4.8 • 18 Ratings
🗓️ 5 May 2026
⏱️ 26 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Matt Smith is the director of commodity research at Kpler, one of the leading energy data firms in the world. He joins Phil Rosen to discuss how much oil is actually moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the outlook for crude prices and global oil flows, Iran's economic leverage over the US, OPEC's changing membership, and more.
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:20 - Oil flows in Strait of Hormuz
1:56 - Why oil isn't at $150 yet
5:20 - US vs. Iran leverage
6:35 - Record US oil exports
8:29 - Diesel shock
10:02 - Jet fuel shortage
12:29 - Is the US actually insulated?
13:40 - US gas prices
14:32 - Permanent energy realignment?
15:56 - Russia and China
18:41 - UAE leaves OPEC+
21:22 - Returning to normal
23:50 - Tanker insurance
24:43 - Inflation outlook
25:30 - Where To Find Matt's Work
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | What's up guys? I'm sitting down with Matt Smith, the lead oil analyst at Kepler. He has the best |
| 0:05.5 | data on oil markets, energy flows, what tankers are doing in the Strait of Hormuz, and much more. |
| 0:11.5 | This is a must-listen conversation about the Iran conflict, what investors should know, |
| 0:16.1 | and how global energy markets are being rewritten in real time. I hope you enjoy this conversation. |
| 0:23.5 | Matt, I'm so glad we're here today. You've been all over the data on the Strait of Hormuz |
| 0:28.6 | and where oil's actually going. Can you give us a sense of how much oil is actually flowing |
| 0:33.1 | right now through that straight there? Wow, like very little, Phil. |
| 0:38.3 | So like in terms of prior to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, we're seeing like 15 million barrels per day. |
| 0:44.3 | That's each that that's just of crude oil and that's like a third of the world seaborne crude exports were leaving through there. |
| 0:51.3 | That has basically ground down to a halt. The only thing that |
| 0:54.9 | we're seeing passing through is some Iranian crude, but in the grand scheme of things, the crude |
| 0:59.4 | oil has dried up. You also see about 5 million barrels a day of clean products. So that's |
| 1:05.0 | jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, LPG, which is propane, and that has dried up as well. So here we are over two months |
| 1:13.0 | after the closure, and those products are just not leaving. And the barrels that are still |
| 1:19.1 | flowing from Iran, those are sanctioned, or is that part of the shadow fleet that we're seeing? |
| 1:25.5 | Yeah, exactly. And so Iran has been sanctioned for a |
| 1:29.9 | good number of years here. And what happens is they have their AIS or an AIS is a transponder. |
| 1:35.5 | And that's how we're tracking all of these vessels on a global basis. It's basically the law |
| 1:40.1 | of the sea that you have this transponder switched on. So everyone can see where you are and you can see where everybody else is. |
| 1:48.1 | But Iran is the shadow fleet and so it's basically going dark. |
| 1:52.0 | And so they move all of their crude without their transponder switched on and that is all |
| 1:56.3 | going to China because that's the only country that will take the sanction crude. |
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