On this episode of Full Signal, I'm very excited to share. We have Michael Casper, a senior U.S.

equity strategist from Bloomberg Intelligence joining me today. We talk about the small cap revival,

the stocks that are going up, the stocks that are going down due to tariffs and the ones that

could win out this year and the sectors that are outperforming tech and the mag seven already to start the year.

This is a fantastic conversation. I learned a ton and I think you will too.

Michael, it's great to see you. You've been doing a lot of work around tariffs and the implication

for the stock market. We just had the Supreme Court strike down Trump's first battle of tariffs.

Can you walk us through

how you're thinking about this? Yeah. So there's going to be winners and losers from this,

of course. The current effective tariff rate under Section 122, which is the way Trump's

re-implementing these tariffs, is expected to fall somewhere around 12% given his 15% know, 15% flat rate. And there's a lot of

exemptions under the surface, right? Stuff for like aircraft, pharmaceuticals, some tech is

exempt. So those exemptions actually bring the effective rate down from that flat 15 down to 12.

Pre the Supreme Court, we were looking at about 13.6% was the effective rate.

This is all, of course, up from about the 2% pre-liberation day we're looking at. So,

overall, it's a nice relief for U.S. companies, but there's going to be winners and losers.

Is that one or two percent difference? Is that really that meaningful for, let's say, the earnings story?

Yeah. So if you do the work like we did, right, we look at what cogs are exposed to overseas

across all the S&P 500 companies. About 43% of the S&P 500's entire cogs are coming from overseas.

Now, if you just use that as a blanket assumption for

the costs that are coming from outside the U.S. and you apply those new effective tariff rates

versus the old effective tariff rates, you're looking at about 133 basis points accretive to

...