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The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Stocks Slide As Jobs Report Keeps Rate Hike Possibility Alive – Ep. 208

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff

Business, Politics, News, Investing, Business News

4.65.9K Ratings

🗓️ 4 November 2016

⏱️ 27 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary


* Today U.S. stocks extended their losing streak to 9 consecutive days
* We haven't had a losing streak this long since 1980 - that was 36 years ago
* 8 consecutive down days last took place in the financial crisis year of 2008, so we had tied that yesterday
* Now we one-bettered it and we're back to the longest streak since 1980
* The record for consecutive down days is 12
* The last time that happened was in 1966
* And if you don't know what the significance was of 1966 - that was the peak of the bull market
* And the bear market that ensued went on for 16 years in nominal terms and much longer than that in real terms
* The Dow hit 1,000 in 1966 and it didn't get above 1,000 until 1982!
* Of course, adjusted for inflation, 1,000 in 1982 wasn't even close to 1,000 in 1966
* Certainly in terms of gold; gold was $35/oz. in 1966 and in 1982 it was probably about $500
* In terms of gold, the Dow was slaughtered during those 16 years
* Even adjusted for the CPI, I don't think we got back to 1,000 until toward the end of the 1990's stock market bubble
* We'll see - we may well be down on Monday, so that would make it 10, and if we're down on Tuesday, 11
* And if Trump wins, then we'll probably be down on Wednesday, so we'll see if we can set this rather dubious record
* Gold, on the other hand was going in the opposite direction
* It managed to finish the week with a small gain, but nonetheless closing above $1300
* Closing out the week at $1304, that's the highest weekly close in some time
* Silver also eked out a small gain of 8¢, at 18.41
* The dollar continued its losing streak of late, with the dollar index closing below .97 with a .96 handle - 96.89
* As stocks are weakening, so is the dollar, and gold is strengthening
* What does this portend for the presidential election?
* Typically, when the incumbent party wins, which in this case would be Hillary, the stock market rises prior to the election
* Normally, when the stock market is falling, it's an indication that they are going to oust the incumbent party
* Based on the stock market, one might think Trump is heading for an upset win
* Is the stock market falling because it is worried about a Trump presidency, or is it simply falling because it doesn't matter?
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Transcript

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0:00.0

The Peter Ships Show.

0:09.8

Today US stocks extended their losing street to nine consecutive days.

0:16.6

We haven't had a losing street this long since 1980.

0:22.0

That was 36 years ago.

0:24.7

Eight consecutive down days.

0:27.7

That last took place in the financial crisis year of 2008.

0:32.9

So we had tied that yesterday and now we won better than it and we're back to the longest

0:38.9

streak since 1980.

0:41.3

Now the record for consecutive down days is 12.

0:47.4

Now the last time that happened was in 1966.

0:53.0

And if you don't know what the significance was of 1966, that was the peak of a bull market

1:01.6

that ended in 1966 and the bear market that ensued went on for 16 years in nominal terms

1:10.2

and much longer than that in real terms because the Dow hit a thousand in 1966 and it didn't

1:17.0

get above a thousand until 1982.

1:21.6

And of course adjusted for inflation, a thousand in 1982 wasn't even close to a thousand

1:28.4

in 1966.

1:30.4

Certainly in terms of gold, right?

1:32.4

Because gold was $35 an ounce in 1966 and in 1982 was probably about 500.

1:40.8

So in gold terms, the Dow was slaughtered during those 16 years.

1:45.6

You know, even adjusted for the CPI, I don't think we got back to a thousand until towards

1:51.6

the end of the 1990 stock market bubble.

1:54.9

That's how long it took to achieve the real levels that we had in 1966.

...

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