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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Steno's Signals: Could Falling Inflation Lead to Layoffs?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business, Business News, News, Investing

4.21K Ratings

🗓️ 18 June 2023

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The tightness in the labor market has, in part, been due to the inflation-adjusted price of labor in the last couple of years. With U.S. inflation decelerating, Andreas analyzes if there is now a risk of rising unemployment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:49.0

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0:52.0

And now to the top analysis of today's markets.

1:02.0

The signals are telling me that inflation will soon be gone, but your job might be gone to that is the sad message in this live edition of

1:12.0

Steno signals. We are going to elaborate on the inflation evidence that we've gathered over the week and why falling inflation could be an issue for corporate profits.

1:24.0

So let's have a look at the data incoming over the week to get an overview of the inflation pressures around the west because I think we find new compelling evidence that inflation is

1:36.0

veining fast now and that inflation will soon be gone as a topic in financial markets this week.

1:44.0

We had the inflation number from may out of Europe.

1:48.0

And if we look at European inflation relative to the US inflation picture on the first shot of broad today.

1:55.0

We're now clearly seeing a pattern of European inflation catching down to the trends that we've seen in the US over the past quarter or two.

2:04.0

This week European inflation surprised clearly to the downside of expectations.

2:10.0

And it was a pretty broad based picture across the European continent, German inflation, surprised on the low side of expectations, French inflation, surprised on the low side of expectations.

2:21.0

And only in Italy inflation increased relative to what was expected.

2:25.0

So we are now at 6.1% in Europe down from double digit territory last year.

2:31.0

And my best guess is that we are below five already next month.

...

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