Welcome to the State of the Race. It is Friday, June 21st, 24 days until the Republican National Convention,

59 days till the Democratic National Convention, and 137 days until the general.

Coming up in this episode, we know not everyone will vote

in the upcoming election, but if they did, who would win?

We'll get into that.

There's evidence that Trump's conviction

may wind up helping him.

And we have one really strange decision

by Biden for the debate I want to talk about. But first let's get into the key metrics and now we are getting to the point in the campaign cycle where multiple sites are releasing their election models who will win the election in November.

538, kind of the most famous one to give you a quick background on that,

Nate Silver's no longer there.

He was the guy who started this site a long time ago. The new guy who was there is a guy. I think he was from the

economist a while ago had a model over there which was super, super pro-Hilary Clinton.

So what you're gonna see from 538 this cycle

may wind up being more pro-Dem

than you're used to out of 538. I know a lot of people think well 538

it's tied to ABC News and we used to be the New York Times and so it's sort of

left leaning but you know Nate Silver's you know a bit of a contrarian at times you can't always predict him anyway long story short 538

now has Biden with a 50% chance of winning 50% of winning over Donald Trump with their simulation model.

DD HQ along with the Hill has a model out as well.

Trump at 58% in their chance to win and the prediction markets are always

interesting to look at Polymarket is one of them where you can bet on the

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