Stu does America, the State of the Race.

Welcome to the State of the Race.

It is July 17, 2024.

We are 33 days away from the Democratic National Convention.

We are 55 days away from the next presidential debate, you know, supposedly.

And we are 111 days from the general election.

Coming up in this episode, you're not going to believe the margin now

between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the prediction markets.

It's pretty incredible. The Democrats' problems are specifically

Joe Biden problems, will tell you why, and Joe Biden doesn't know the details of his own policies.

New low for Joe.

But first we start off with our key metrics,

and we'll give you a quick idea of where the polling is right now,

what was it, 111 days out from the general election, and it's sort of a weird

period for polling.

Right now we have no polls that reflect a post-donald-Trump assassination attempt world. I can't believe I have to say those

words but that's where we are. We have a lot of polls now that are after the

terrible debate performance from Joe Biden and what they show is a move toward

Donald Trump but not an overwhelming one if you look at the general election

polls the real clear politics average has Donald Trump up by about

2.7 points. Depending on where you look with some of these forecast models you're seeing you know Nate Silver's model and the economist having about

a 70% chance of Donald Trump winning a little bit over that and in the 538's model and the DD HQ model you have a less aggressive version of that in the mid-50s of Donald Trump winning, but he's favored in all those measures.

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