Welcome to the state of the race. July 31st, 2024. We are only 19 days away from the Democratic National Convention.

If the debate happens on September 10th as planned, that's only 41 days away and the election itself 97 days away from

November 5th. What's to come in this episode? Well we've got a crazy new poll for

Kamala Harris.

Nate Silver has his new prediction model updated for the Harris candidacy we will

tell you what that says and we'll go through the potential Kamala VPPICS but

we start with our key metrics. Polling averages are

looking you know pretty close. The New York Times shows it at Trump 48 Harris

46. This looks very similar to what we saw before the

disastrous Joe Biden candidacy ending debate on June 27th of about a two-point race.

And it is a race that is still a Trump favored race,

but a race that is considerably closer

than the worst moments of the Biden post debate era, which was quite a short era.

Now I mentioned Nate Silver, he is updated his election model to reflect Kamala Harris and new polling.

And basically, they ran this, he ran this thing on Joe Biden and it had showed, you know showed a 70 plus chance

percent chance for Donald Trump to win

the election if Biden were to have stayed in the race.

When he dropped out of the race everybody just basically paused their

models. We go through a bunch of these models as we can on some of these updates and

basically everybody just kind of paused them all at once and said okay we're going to

wait for those enough polling on

Kamala Harris to make this thing make any sense. And there was theoretical polling on Harris.

...