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More or Less

Spreadsheet snafu, ‘Long Covid’ quantified, and the birth of probability

More or Less

BBC

News Commentary, Science, Mathematics, News

4.63.7K Ratings

🗓️ 7 October 2020

⏱️ 22 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

After nearly 16,000 cases disappeared off coronaviruses spreadsheets, we ask what went wrong. How common are lasting symptoms from Covid-19? If you survey people about the death toll from Covid, they’ll make mistakes. What do those mistakes teach us? Pedants versus poets on the subject of exponential growth. And we dive deep into the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Before this BBC podcast kicks off, I'd like to tell you about some others you might enjoy.

0:05.1

My name's Will Wilkin and I Commission Music Podcast for the BBC.

0:08.7

It's a really cool job, but every day we get to tell the incredible stories behind songs,

0:13.5

moments and movements, stories of struggle and success, rises and falls, the funny, the ridiculous.

0:19.1

And the BBC's position, at the heart of British music

0:21.7

means we can tell those stories like no one else.

0:24.5

We were, are and always will be right there at the centre of the narrative.

0:28.6

So whether you want an insightful take on music right now

0:31.3

or a nostalgic deep dive into some of the most famous and infamous moments in music,

0:36.1

check out the music podcasts on BBC Sounds.

0:40.2

BBC Sounds, music, radio podcasts.

0:44.2

Hello and welcome to more or less, the show you can count on to make it count when taking

0:48.7

account of miscounts and other numerical naughtiness. This week, we like to have fun between the spreadsheets as

0:55.2

much as anyone, but England's test and trace system has lost thousands of positive test

1:00.3

results between two spreadsheets. What happened? And why does it matter? How common are lasting

1:06.8

symptoms from COVID? If you survey people about the death toll, they'll make mistakes.

1:12.1

What do those mistakes teach us? And pedants versus poets on the subject of exponential growth.

1:19.5

First, last weekend it emerged that 15,841 coronavirus cases in England had gone unreported over a period of eight days.

1:31.4

This had two obvious consequences.

1:34.6

First, because those cases weren't transferred to the contact tracing system,

1:38.8

there were long delays in attempting to reach people they may have infected with coronavirus.

1:43.5

As we know, when it comes to

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