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Let's Know Things

Speculation

Let's Know Things

Colin Wright

News Commentary, News

4.8593 Ratings

🗓️ 1 March 2022

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week we talk about meme stocks, sports betting, and bubbles.


We also discuss addictive apps, the Super Bowl, and speculative hype cycles.


Show notes / transcript: https://letsknowthings.com/episode301



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

An economic bubble, sometimes called a speculative bubble, forms when the value of an asset ascends to levels disconnected from

0:23.6

the actual underlying value of the asset as a consequence of rampant and sometimes even frenzied

0:30.5

levels of speculation. So a bubble in this context refers to the inflation of an asset's price

0:36.3

that is disconnected from its metrics-based value.

0:39.9

And speculation in this context refers to investing in assets you think might reap

0:44.7

outsized rewards if you plan your moves and purchases appropriately.

0:50.5

Speculative bubbles tend to follow a pattern, almost a script, moving in stages, beginning with

0:56.9

the emergence of a new asset, or the widespread surge in fascination with an existing one.

1:03.4

This creates a trend which in turn sparks the perception that this asset is currently

1:08.2

undervalued because so many other people want to get in on it.

1:12.5

Thus, the thinking goes if I can buy some of this asset now, even if the price is higher than it was

1:18.0

before everyone got interested in it, I can probably increase my wealth because that price will

1:23.3

continue to go up. I can sell it for more than I bought it for. If an asset was previously priced

1:29.7

at $1 by the market, and then it suddenly surges to $10 on that same market, I might look at that

1:37.5

surge and the popularity of this asset and think, well, it's probably going to keep going up,

1:43.5

so even if this is 10 times the previous

1:46.2

price, I might still make a profit if I buy now before the price climbs even higher.

1:52.2

A bunch of people thinking along these same lines can then lead to a rapid price increase,

1:58.0

which in turn serves as evidence for the assumptions of the people who are

2:02.5

flogging this asset.

2:04.2

Those who are saying it's going to be the next big thing.

2:06.6

Look, we told you so, the prices went up astronomically.

...

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