CPAC is the biggest event in the MAGA calendar. Last year, it was a triumphant celebration of the total victory of the America First project. Donald Trump basked in the adulation. Elon Musk wielded a chainsaw and laughed maniacally.

This year, something feels different. The President, who has spoken at each conference for the past decade, is suggesting he's staying away this time. The war in Iran has got attendees feeling uneasy, even confused - what happened to the man who promised no more foreign intervention?

And there's a wider malaise. Trump is polling at an all-time low. The Republicans look like they're heading for a hammering in the midterm elections. Their grip on cultural and political domination - which just 12 months ago looked complete - is now weakening. You won't hear much talk of a Trump third term in Dallas any more.

The sunny optimism of MAGA has been replaced by something darker. There is increasing focus on a new enemy - Islam and Islamism. It's helping the base reframe and justify the attack on Iran; one event is literally titled 'MAGA vs. Mullah Madness'. It's helping them sustain an argument about the decline of Europe and the threat of the Democrats. And it's helping a very strange mix of characters stay relevant and keep the bookings coming in.

Liz Truss was at the Gaylord Convention Center telling a packed out crowd about the horrors of 'Europestan'. Is it any wonder that MAGA hates Britain?

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