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Thoughts on the Market

Special Episode, Part 2: Markets Eye Climbing Government Deficits

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Strategy, Alternatives, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Global, Business, Markets, Economics

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 8 May 2020

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

How should an investor evaluate the issue of high levels of government debt as nations battle the impact of the coronavirus? A deep dive into the debate.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetanaya, Chief Economist for Morgan Stanley.

0:07.0

And I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategy at Morgan Stanley, and welcome back to

0:10.5

Part 2 of the special edition of Thoughts in the Market, where we'll be talking

0:14.3

about the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy and the effect on markets

0:19.2

longer term.

0:20.2

It's Friday, May 8th at 11 a.m. Eastern time.

0:23.3

So Andrew, how should an investor evaluate this issue of high levels of debt around the world,

0:28.6

especially in the DiM world?

0:30.2

So it's a really interesting debate because as you mentioned we're looking at debt and deficit levels that really have very few

0:39.5

comparisons in history even going back a very long period of time.

0:44.0

I think the irony, though, is that I think, based on the investors that I speak to,

0:49.0

most investors would probably prefer and think it would be a better thing for the economy and the markets for governments to do more to support the economy even if that means more borrowing, then do less.

1:02.8

And I think you need to look no further than investors' views towards Europe,

1:07.6

where I think generally you've seen stock markets there lag.

1:11.5

I think you've seen investors generally and probably correctly

1:15.1

be more cautious on European assets and one of the reasons for that is that Europe has been more

1:20.0

reluctant to borrow more to support its economy.

1:23.8

So I think it's something that's getting a lot of focus,

1:27.3

but I think you're looking below the surface

1:29.9

in terms of where investors' preferences really lie, I think actually at the moment investors

1:35.9

would probably prefer, you know, more borrowing, more stimulus, more economic support than less.

1:42.1

Yeah, Andrew, as an economist, I would also think that that response is the correct response

...

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