In case you missed it, today we're bringing you a special encore release of a recent

episode.

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

I'm Michael Zezis, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the

intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets.

It's Wednesday, August 25 at 10.30 a.m. in New York.

Heading into the last unofficial week of summer, we're taking stock of the geopolitical

events this fall that will define markets.

Here's our cheat sheet for those events.

On fiscal policy in the U.S. expect progress to be made toward a fiscal deal that will

approach $4 trillion of new spending over 10 years.

We think this will be approved in the fourth quarter, but do not expect that progress to

come without some drama.

There are several points where negotiations within the Democratic Party will seem to

put the deal in peril, in particular around the final sticker price for the budget reconciliation

bill and the level of taxes raised to offset the spending.

Those roadblocks could certainly keep a lid on investor's deficit growth expectations

and therefore treasury yields for a time, but we expect Democrats ultimately find a way

through.

This, together with the approaching Fed taper talk and our biotech teams expectation

that the recent COVID wave should mitigate this fall, should open the door to higher treasury

...