Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk in the Street. I'm Carl Kington-A with Morgan Brennan. Mike Santoli here at Post-9 to the New York Stock Exchange. David and Sarah are off today. We'll see if the Bulls can mount a year-end rally here. S&P of about half a percent. VIX below 15. That's going to be about a three-month low. We'll watch that. Treasuries remain in a range as well with the 10-year right around 416.

Today, a new report about NVIDIA shipping into those H-200s to China, and when it may all begin,

we'll get some details.

A top analyst says there is an under-the-radar indicator he's watching to determine which

retailers will be doing best this holiday season, and he'll explain it coming up.

Plus, top venture capitalist Eric Capo on what private AI companies could look like once they do go

public and what it means for investors.

Let's begin, though, with the market and the setup for stocks going into the new year.

Mike Santoli says there are three big questions that still remain, Mike.

Yes, well, any number of questions, but three that I think make a lot of sense to focus on, aside from the core variables in a look ahead, which is, of course, earnings outlook, are we going to get a recession or not? And, you know, what are we going to pay for those earnings? All those three things and where are interest rates going? I think they're feeding into this general weight of the evidence bullish case, which says,

hey, market's up 70% of all years.

You don't have a recession in sight.

Fed's leaning lower, earnings consensus is up by double digits.

So don't bet against the market.

But on top of that, I think the concentration question is still going to be with us.

Do we want a market that broadens

more from the mega cap dominance? Have we already had a market that's broader than it's been

given credit for? I think in some respects it is. The equal weighted S&P is up like 10% this year. So it

hasn't just been those seven stocks. The other piece of it is we're going to need a lot of capital

raise next year, even more than we had this year, and it's going to probably have to happen

more from public investors. So all the IPOs we have waiting, the AI trade is very hungry,

the debt markets are definitely being taxed by what they're having to deliver for that.

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