Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sarah Eisen with Carl Kintania.

We are live from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. David Faber has the morning off.

Coming up this hour, Toma Bravo, managing partner Orlando Bravo, will join us here at Post 9.

As hundreds of billions of dollars flow around the AI ecosystem, we'll talk about where the tech biofirm is putting money to work right now.

Plus, former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will be with us to talk about the shutdowns

impact on the Fed and on the economy. And that's where we start today, Carl. We don't have the

official economic data coming out. So everyone's trying to figure out what's happening,

particularly on jobs, especially because this is a time

where the market was starting to worry about what the job market is showing, and there's a lot of

uncertainty in the data. So what can we do? Well, we can work with what we've got. And so I put

together a few sort of real-time indicators or leading indicators to show us what we might be seeing

on jobs if we were to have gotten a jobs report, which we didn't because of the shutdown.

So Carlisle put out a real-time indicator today.

They looked across all their businesses.

Remember, they own a lot of businesses and private equity.

They have, I think, more than 700,000 people working for them.

So here's what they're estimating.

17,000 jobs added in the month of September.

And that would be a step down from what we saw in August, which was 22,000.

But also sort of jibs with the weaker jobs growth we've seen lately.

Remember, June, according to revisions, actually went negative on job growth.

So that's what they're estimating. And then the other one that I always point out is the NFIB hiring

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