SOTS 2nd Hour: ADP Jobs Breakdown, What it Means for Rates, & Vietnam Trade Deal Latest 7/2/25

Squawk on the Street

CNBC

Investing, News, Business

4.1 • 567 Ratings

🗓️ 2 July 2025

⏱️ 46 minutes

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Summary

Another day of jobs data and trade deals: Sara Eisen, David Faber, and Wilfred Frost broke down the latest as the President announces a new deal with Vietnam. Key details, this hour. Plus: Oppenheimer’s Chief Investment Strategist gave his take on the action – before the team caught up with Valueworks Founder Charles Lemonides, who discussed his investments in Rivian, Joby, Amazon, and Micron. Also in focus: a number of huge movers, from Centene shares on pace for their worst day *ever* to new numbers out of Constellation Brands… What investors should know about both names. Plus, the big banks playbook as the group sees gains across the board on the promise of dividend hikes and buyback boosts ahead.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Good Wednesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sarah Eisen with David Faber and Wilford
0:04.7	Frost here. We are live from post 9 of New York Stock Exchange. Carl has the morning off. Stocks are not
0:09.9	doing a whole lot of much if you look at the major indexes. The S&P 500 little change. Nasdaq is getting a boost.
0:16.4	So there's strength in tech today with the NASDAQ up a quarter of 1%. Dow Jones Industrial
0:21.2	average down 70, waiting for word of whether the big beautiful bill passes, got the ADP private
0:28.0	sector jobs we'll talk about. Take a look at treasuries right now. And we are seeing kind of a mixed
0:33.5	picture. The two-year yield is lower. 3777. A little bit higher odds of a rate cut for
0:39.2	July. That's reflected in the two-year. The rest of the curve a little bit firmer. Today, both
0:44.0	Tesla and Rivian reporting delivery numbers. We've got a Rivian shareholder to talk about
0:48.5	the news and where else he's seeing opportunity right now. Plus, dividend hikes and buyback
0:53.7	boosts coming from the financials,
0:55.3	but we have a top analyst who says there's one bank name that is underappreciated in the sector.
1:00.3	She'll reveal it coming up. Guys, we got the ADP job report. And remember yesterday I talked about
1:06.5	some of the weakness that's happening in the job market. Well, put this report squarely in that
1:11.1	category. We saw a negative number. It was actually a drop in private sector jobs, down 33,000
1:16.8	in June. Expectation was we would see a gain of almost 100,000. So that was a very big negative
1:22.0	surprise. And here's a look at where the job losses were in the month of June, and I highlight it because it's a lot of the
1:29.0	services sector, education and health, that was a big job creator over the last few months,
1:33.3	financial activities, professional services. It speaks, the fact that it's concentrated in services
1:39.0	speaks to the underlying softness in the economy. It's not in manufacturing and goods,
1:43.2	which would be more tariff-driven, I think. It's in services. Now, one question is, does ADP correlate with
1:50.2	NFP, the big jobs report that we're going to get tomorrow? It hasn't been a great correlation
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