The not-obvious connection between how much we consumers are buying and our mortgage rates.

From Marketplace, I'm Sabrina Schor, in for David Brunkaccio.

Two numbers from the hidden economic connections file this morning.

First retail sales increased seven tenths of a percent back in September.

That is more than double what the experts were expecting.

So we have all been busy buying stuff, apparently A, and B, 10-year treasury yields spiked to

the highest level since June of 2007.

These two things are connected and joining us to talk about it is Dr. David Kelly.

He's chief global strategist at JP Morgan Funds.

Good morning.

Good morning.

So how important is it that retail sales exceeded expectations in such a major way?

Well, I think the strength of the consumer overall is very important.

I mean, these advanced estimates retail sales are always a little flaky because they don't

serve enough people to get the numbers exactly right.

So even before this, it looked like real consumer spending in the third quarter was growing

at a 4 percent annualized rate.

And with these numbers now, it looks more like 4.5 percent annualized rate.

So clearly, there's a lot of consumer momentum in the economy right now.

And that does change the picture in terms of the threat of recession and also the picture

in terms of interest rates.

Right.

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