Some "R" Words are Worse than Others
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 29 April 2022
⏱️ 26 minutes
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Summary
Recession. The dreaded word, “recession.” For those who have lost their job in one, it can feel like a depression. For those who kept their own job in one but saw their portfolios drop, or saw neighbors or loved ones lose their jobs, or experienced a decline in income or business revenue, it may not have had the existential punch that it did for others, but it generates unpleasant memories of unpleasant times.
There is a lot of talk about a recession right now, some of it imbecilic, some of it overtly political, and some of it, quite substantive and important. But if the Dividend Cafe exists to bring simplicity and honesty to topics that are often spoken of with too much complexity and/or abundant dishonesty, the task at hand is readily apparent.
And so we will look at recession reality in current times, when, what, and why, and unpack the investment implications on all of it. I will always do my best at the simplicity part (I know I miss the mark there sometimes). I will be unrelenting in the honesty part. But as far as the pleasant part of it all, well, let’s just say my focus is on the honesty part.
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Hello and welcome to another Dividendon Cafe. It has been a heck of a week in the markets, some big down days, some big up days, some just carnage and fang, |
| 0:24.7 | one fang name, rallying a bit, really just a little volatile and unpredictable, and that's the way |
| 0:30.6 | things go. And as is the case, each and every week a living cafe, I'm going to spend basically |
| 0:35.6 | no time at all talking about any of that. |
| 0:37.9 | I want those you listen to the podcast, those you watch in the video, to hear from me today on a |
| 0:44.0 | topic that is absolutely a topic that will matter in another quarter and in another three years |
| 0:51.3 | and in another three decades. It's the way that we think about recessions. |
| 0:56.6 | Now, the reason I'm bringing the topic up now |
| 0:58.7 | is you're going to just hear this R word over and over again. |
| 1:03.8 | And the recession word right now is coming up |
| 1:06.7 | because I think there is a greater chance of tipping into recession when a central bank is tightening |
| 1:14.3 | monetary policy and pulling credit out of the economy than when they're not. |
| 1:18.9 | That generally speaking, we think of monetary expansion is anti-recessionary, and in theory, |
| 1:24.7 | credit contraction can be recessionary. |
| 1:27.5 | So it's understandable that we're looking at that way. |
| 1:31.5 | But I have to say, first of all, there's a lot of people throwing the recession word out |
| 1:35.4 | because there are another R word, and that is Republican. |
| 1:40.1 | And you always want to make the economy look bad or cast aspersions on economic prospects |
| 1:47.1 | when the other party is in power. The Democrats would absolutely do it to Republicans. |
| 1:53.3 | So look at the job status or what's going on in the market. You look at how the economy was |
| 1:58.6 | contracting during COVID and how that was obviously |
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