Some Brexit Scenarios

TALKING POLITICS

Catherine Carr

News, News & Politics

4.7 • 2.5K Ratings

🗓️ 11 December 2019

⏱️ 44 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

For our last pre-election episode we talk with Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe, about what might happen to Brexit once the vote is done. What choices does Johnson face if he wins? What paths are there to a second referendum if he loses? And what will remainers do if Britain does finally leave the EU? Plus we discuss what the rest of Europe makes of it all. With Helen Thompson. Tomorrow, we talk about the result of the election as it happens.

Talking Points:

There are basically two scenarios: Johnson gets a majority and the withdrawal bill passes, or there’s a hung parliament.

The first is slightly more probable, but the margins are getting closer.
If Johnson has a majority of even one, the UK will probably leave.
But we still don’t know what Johnson wants. Will he be a prisoner to the ERG or will he be a one nation Tory and go for a softer Brexit?
The next crunch point will be the end of June with the extension for transition.

EU leaders have been assuming a Johnson victory.

There’s a conversation in Brussels about how flexible the EU should be, given Johnson’s comments on European trade.
Relations within the EU have gotten more fraught.
What about the UK’s security relationship with the EU?

Would a hung parliament inevitably lead to a second referendum?

It’s not clear that a Corbyn minority government could legislate for a referendum. You might actually get another election.

The gap between Labour and the Conservatives is as wide as it has been in recent history.

The Lib Dems have again fallen behind.
The public seems to be uncomfortable with revoke. It’s not a vote winner.

If the UK leaves, where do the remainers go?

It doesn’t seem that project rejoin would have much steam in the short term.
If Johnson wins, it will be on less than half of the vote. And the likelihood of a fifth Conservative victory is unlikely.
There is a reason for Labour to believe that next time is their real chance.

Mentioned in this Episode:

Further Learning:

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello, my name is David Ronserman and this is Talking Politics. We're recording this episode
0:08.0	the morning before the election. We're going to do another one the morning after the election
0:11.9	to talk about what actually happened. Today we're going to try and work through what the possible
0:17.0	scenarios might mean for the ultimate fate of Brexit. Talking Politics is brought to you in
0:26.4	partnership with the London reviewer books. This Christmas hits thoughts that counts.
0:31.8	Give everyone you know a subscription to the LRB for just 1999 and they'll throw in a free
0:38.6	2020 calendar featuring some of the best of their fantastic cover art. Find this special festive
0:44.8	offer at lrb.me forward slash Christmas. I am delighted that we have with us and Anmanon,
0:56.1	who is the director of the UK in a changing Europe. The most interesting contributor to the debate
1:01.7	about Brexit, commentary and analysis from before it was Brexit when it was just a looming referendum.
1:07.6	It's a gleaming R.I. And Helen Thompson, another of the most interesting contributors to the debate
1:13.2	about Brexit. When I asked I produced a Catherine how we should structure this conversation she said
1:18.3	just let them talk. So I'm going to ask you a couple of questions and we'll see where we get to.
1:24.5	We're a day out. We don't know what's going to happen. There are still basically two scenarios here.
1:29.9	Johnson gets a majority and the withdrawal agreement bill passes. Even if it's a relatively small
1:35.0	majority, even if it's maybe even if it's only 10. Or there's a hung parliament. So let's do the
1:41.6	first one first. It's still on the betting markets. The slightly more probable one, but it's getting
1:46.1	closer and closer all the time. And if Johnson gets a majority however slender and all his candidates
1:53.7	have signed a pledge that they will back the withdrawal agreement bill so it passes. What happens next?
1:59.1	What's the next crunch point? Because that is not getting Brexit done.
2:04.0	I mean, I think if he has a majority of one we leave at the end of January. I don't think a
2:08.4	single Tory MP votes against Brexit before the end of January. But then in a sense the fun
	...

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