Soccer Goalies Ignore Basic Rule of Probability
Science Quickly
Scientific American
4.4 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 25 August 2014
⏱️ 2 minutes
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| 0:30.0 | This is Scientific Americans 60 second science. I'm Karen Hopkins. |
| 0:35.0 | I'm Karen Hopkins. This will just take a minute. |
| 0:38.0 | Imagine you're a soccer goalie. Your opponent gets ready to take a penalty kick. |
| 0:42.0 | You're crouched in front of the net. |
| 0:44.0 | The past three kickers have aimed to your left. So which way do you dive? |
| 0:48.2 | If you said right, you'd be in good company. Because when penalty shots repeatedly head in one direction, world-class |
| 0:54.4 | goalkeepers are more likely to lunge the other way. That's according to a study in the journal |
| 0:58.4 | Current Biology. This form of misconception, that a string of rights is bound to be broken by a left, is also common in casinos, |
| 1:06.1 | so much so that it's called the gambler's fallacy. |
| 1:08.7 | At the roulette wheel, for example, betters tend to back black after seeing a run of reds. |
| 1:13.2 | We're due for a black, the thinking goes, |
| 1:15.3 | but in reality, the roulette ball is still equally likely to land on either color. |
| 1:19.6 | And despite what net minders might think, |
| 1:22.0 | the same is true for penalty kicks. |
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