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A single best idea.

The single best idea is to understand the jobs report is Thursday, not Friday, this week. A huge wall of economic data squeezed in to a holiday length and work week. We start strong with Bob Michael out with a mid-year update for J.P. Morgan, driving all of their full faith and credit work, many other duties as well. Bob Michael here on the new regime, which is the new normal. We're heading into an

environment that's more normal, that existed pre-great financial crisis. When there is a demand for capital because there's a productive

use for capital and there will be a cost for that capital and it won't be zero. Does that

mean the Fed funds rate belongs about where that first dot was that the Fed put out in 2012, 4 and a quarter percent, maybe could be get ready for that.

Get ready for markets where you could see a surge in inflation.

The Fed may have to go to 6 percent, and they may have to, you know, apply a little stimulus and go down to 3%. I think that's the market we're headed for,

and I think that's an exciting market. Bob Michael there with J.P. Morgan, just really interesting

conversations about the mid-year review and, of course, the uncertainties and the many uncertainties,

hard to quantify, that are out there. It was a joy to talk to Brad

Bechtel. He is with Jeffreys and very different in foreign exchange strategy with a huge

trading and the sales part of it, the mechanism, the process part of buying and selling various

and sundry foreign exchange. I asked Brad Bechtel the idea here

of what's the rookie mistake in foreign exchange trading. The biggest mistake people make is they get

convicted, they get convinced on a trade, they jump all in, and you have to be very careful. This is

a sawtooth market. This is not a market that's on a

45 degree line. This is a market that likes to wash people out from time to time. So the moment you

get convinced on the trade, like I am now with the short dollar strategy, you have to remain nimble

and you have to remain hedged and ready to kind of reduce risk into the extreme moves. So when

the positioning gets extreme, that's when you should be

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