SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 16 February 2020

⏱️ 60 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:12 – Macro recap from Niels

02:59 – Weekly review of performance

05:23 – Top Tweets

34:12 – Michael; Question 1: Would avoiding all S&P500 stocks improve a Trend Following system?

36:57 – Chris; Question 2: Can you explain the term ‘Vol Targeting’?

43:40 – Adrian: Question 3: What recent client requests have you refused to accommodate, when it comes to altering either your strategies, or your business?

53:31 – Francois; Comment related to recent episodes where we discussed Trend Following on equities

57:24 – Benchmark performance update

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful.

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Seabert, and Nealz Kostrup Larson on their raw and honest
0:07.3	journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent
0:12.3	yet often overlooked investment strategy. Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series.
0:22.8	Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with
0:27.1	Jerry Parker and I, Neil Castro-Larsen, where we each week take the pulse of the global
0:31.6	market through the lens of a rules-based investor.
0:34.4	For long-time listeners, our conversations are intended to keep you focused and
0:38.5	inspired to continue your trend-following journey. And if you're new to the show, our hope
0:43.5	is that today's episode will trigger your curiosity to check out the back catalog and all
0:48.7	the past episodes that you may have missed. Morris is out this week down under, not with the flu, but in Australia, so he'll be back
0:57.4	with us, hopefully, next week.
1:00.1	Jared, just you and me.
1:01.1	How are you doing?
1:02.0	Doing well.
1:02.6	I'm in New York today.
1:03.4	It's a little cold.
1:04.3	I'm not used to this cold weather, being from Florida, but good to be with you and see you.
1:09.8	Yeah, absolutely.
1:11.2	Likewise.
1:12.4	I was out for the week skiing, so didn't pay that much attention to the markets.
1:21.2	But of course, we can't not notice that U.S. equities hit another all-time high this week.
1:29.0	I was just going to say, as did the dollar, but not quite,
	...

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