SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 16 February 2020
⏱️ 60 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:12 – Macro recap from Niels
02:59 – Weekly review of performance
05:23 – Top Tweets
34:12 – Michael; Question 1: Would avoiding all S&P500 stocks improve a Trend Following system?
36:57 – Chris; Question 2: Can you explain the term ‘Vol Targeting’?
43:40 – Adrian: Question 3: What recent client requests have you refused to accommodate, when it comes to altering either your strategies, or your business?
53:31 – Francois; Comment related to recent episodes where we discussed Trend Following on equities
57:24 – Benchmark performance update
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Seabert, and Nealz Kostrup Larson on their raw and honest |
| 0:07.3 | journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent |
| 0:12.3 | yet often overlooked investment strategy. Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:22.8 | Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with |
| 0:27.1 | Jerry Parker and I, Neil Castro-Larsen, where we each week take the pulse of the global |
| 0:31.6 | market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:34.4 | For long-time listeners, our conversations are intended to keep you focused and |
| 0:38.5 | inspired to continue your trend-following journey. And if you're new to the show, our hope |
| 0:43.5 | is that today's episode will trigger your curiosity to check out the back catalog and all |
| 0:48.7 | the past episodes that you may have missed. Morris is out this week down under, not with the flu, but in Australia, so he'll be back |
| 0:57.4 | with us, hopefully, next week. |
| 1:00.1 | Jared, just you and me. |
| 1:01.1 | How are you doing? |
| 1:02.0 | Doing well. |
| 1:02.6 | I'm in New York today. |
| 1:03.4 | It's a little cold. |
| 1:04.3 | I'm not used to this cold weather, being from Florida, but good to be with you and see you. |
| 1:09.8 | Yeah, absolutely. |
| 1:11.2 | Likewise. |
| 1:12.4 | I was out for the week skiing, so didn't pay that much attention to the markets. |
| 1:21.2 | But of course, we can't not notice that U.S. equities hit another all-time high this week. |
| 1:29.0 | I was just going to say, as did the dollar, but not quite, |
... |
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