SI67: The psychology of predictions

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 23 December 2019

⏱️ 66 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness, why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns. Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently? Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator? How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy?

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:37 – Macro recap from Niels

03:10 – Weekly review of performance

11:55 – Top tweets (starting with tweet about recent Cliff Asness article from AQR)

50:48 – Announcement of future podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020

53:47 – Question 1: Mike; How would you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long-Volatility strategy?

57:50 – Question 2 Drew; Does the strategy of buying into a Trend Following fund during its drawdowns count as a form of Value Investing, and therefore, hypocritical to Trend Following philosophy?

01:03:37 – Benchmark performance update

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Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kastrup Larson on their raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:15.1	Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series.
0:19.7	Jerry Parker, Moritz Siebert and I, Niels Karstvlarz, are back with this week's edition
0:23.7	of the Systematic Investor Series, where each week we give you a raw and honest account
0:29.2	of what it's like to be a rules-based investor, what news and articles caught our attention,
0:34.6	and of course where we also attempt to answer all of your questions.
0:39.6	So let me start as I usually do by saying good morning to you Jerry and good afternoon to you
0:45.3	Moritz. How are you doing this Sunday in December? Good. It's a wet and relatively cold Sunday,
0:52.2	but looking forward to some quiet Christmas days.
0:56.3	So doing fine.
0:56.8	How are you?
0:57.6	Very well on my side.
0:58.8	Yeah.
0:59.2	Yeah.
0:59.6	Doing great in Virginia, cold.
1:02.3	And I'll be back to Florida tomorrow.
1:05.4	And I'm back in Copenhagen, so it is wet, windy, and not very nice actually for Christmas but there we are
1:14.6	such as life by the way if you're tuning in for the first time let's just say welcome to you as well
1:21.4	and we hope for the next hour or so we're going to keep you informed and maybe entertained about the systematic
1:28.9	investment world and just want to say we appreciate you tuning into our podcast today in terms
1:37.5	of kind of the the quick review for this week not much from my side,
1:44.4	except that in some sense,
	...

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