SI49: Morgan Housel's universal laws of investing and the importance of investor behaviour

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 19 August 2019

⏱️ 77 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today, we discuss the potential dangers of taking time away from the markets, the importance of Investor behaviour over the ability to analyse data, Morgan Housel’s article on the universal Laws of Investing, the differences between Buy-and-Hold, periodically re-balancing your portfolio, versus a more active Trend Following approach, as well as the art of profiting from Tail Events. Questions we address this week include: is Inter-Market Analysis a useful tool or a dangerous approach? Should a Trading System be designed to be comfortable to execute? Would a reduced presence of Trend Followers in the market result in slower, more random price movements? What is the overall effect on markets of large participation from Trend Following strategies, and can the space become too overcrowded?

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Macro recap from Niels

03:40 – Weekly review of performance

08:30 – Top tweets

59:30 – Question 1: Craig; If less TF market participants exist, shouldn’t trends be slower and more random on ST horizons?

01:12:45 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19

01:13:30 – Benchmark performance update

01:15:00 – Challenge to Sam to record the first message

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Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kastrup Larson on their raw and honest
0:07.1	journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent
0:12.2	yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:15.0	Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series.
0:19.9	Jerry Parker, Moritz Siebert and I, Niels Kastrolasner, back with this week's edition
0:23.3	of the Systematic Investor Series, where each week we focus on helping you build safer
0:28.3	and better performing portfolios by including trend following in the mix and where we do
0:33.7	our best to answer all of your questions.
0:40.2	Now, if you are a first-time listener,
0:47.0	welcome. We appreciate you taking time out to spend with us and we aim to make it worth your while.
0:52.1	As usual, let me start by saying good morning to you, Jerry, and good afternoon to you, Moritz.
0:58.4	How are you? Hello, guys. Hi, both. How are you? Great. Good morning. Doing well. Thanks very much. Let me do a quick review of things that just kind of caught my eye this week. I think the main, the two main
1:04.1	storage, I would say. One was, of course, that the 30-year interest rates in the U.S. hit all-time lows this week.
1:14.1	And that's kind of sparked.
1:17.3	The government to once again consider whether they should start borrowing even longer than the 30 years that we know as kind of the longest U.S. treasury.
1:28.3	There were some talk yesterday, Friday, and that they're thinking about, or at least going
1:34.3	to ask what people or investors think about if they were to issue a 50-year, a 100-year bond,
1:39.3	just like we talked about a few weeks ago that Austria has done.
1:43.3	So I think that is interesting. The 10-year
1:47.0	yield is not quite at new all-time lows, but it's pretty down close. And of course,
1:52.6	the other event that caught my eye this week was the Chinese, of course, allowing their currency
1:59.0	to go through the seven handle, which, of course,
	...

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