SI401: Why Trend Following Wins in Chaos ft. Nick Baltas
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 23 May 2026
⏱️ 61 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Introduction to the episode
01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility
03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026
06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies
10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS?
15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS
17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies
24:15 – Can hedge funds front run QIS trades?
27:46 – Commodity curve carry explained
30:48 – Largest drawdown ever for commodity curve strategies
33:59 – Is now the right time to buy commodity curve carry?
37:20 – Why some curve carry implementations still made money
40:01 – Trend following performance across alternative vs traditional markets
44:21 – Why broader trend portfolios may improve Sharpe ratios
47:22 – Listener question: Is there alpha in execution?
49:53 – How CTAs think about execution and slippage
53:50 – Why trend following on single name equities is rare
57:58 – Chesapeake’s single name trend approach
59:04 – Final thoughts and wrap up
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged. |
| 0:03.0 | In markets, success doesn't come from predicting what happens next. |
| 0:08.0 | It comes from being prepared for what you can't predict. |
| 0:11.0 | In each episode, we go deep with some of the world's most thoughtful minds in investing, economics, and beyond |
| 0:18.0 | to understand how they think, how they prepare, and how they decide, and the |
| 0:22.3 | experiences that shaped how they see the world. |
| 0:25.4 | No noise, no shortcuts, just real conversations to help you think better and invest with confidence. |
| 0:35.7 | Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Nick |
| 0:40.8 | Baltas from Goldman Sachs and I, Moritz Siebert from Tucker A Capital, where each week we take |
| 0:46.4 | the pause of the global markets through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:51.0 | Today I'm sitting in for my friend, Niels Karstab Larson, who would normally be recording this show with Nick, but Niels is traveling this week and therefore unable to get in front of the mic. |
| 1:01.2 | So Nick, Niels likes to start this show, as usual, with his What's Been on Your Radar Lately question? |
| 1:09.8 | And I'd like to pick this up and ask you, well, what's been on your radar lately question and I'd like to pick this up and ask you well |
| 1:12.3 | what's been on your radar lately what's been keeping you busy what's top of mind yeah I know |
| 1:18.4 | need needs does that and you know it's good to see you more it's been like what six months we're |
| 1:22.2 | here together yeah six months or something like that yeah so yeah it's always a pleasure to kind |
| 1:26.6 | of connect again with you. |
| 1:28.4 | What's been on my mind, frankly, is very, very busy. |
| 1:31.0 | It's very busy with no client activity. |
| 1:33.0 | Obviously the markets have been keeping us up on our feet for some time now, you know, complacency |
| 1:40.0 | and at the same time, eager to get what the next phase of this macro situation is, |
| 1:45.8 | certainly takes a good amount of our time. |
... |
Transcript will be available on the free plan in 14 days. Upgrade to see the full transcript now.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.