SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 14 February 2026
⏱️ 74 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series
01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing
06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk
09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors
12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity
19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation
22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold
29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models
35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability
44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives
51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty
59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication
01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia
01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series |
| 0:29.8 | with Andrew Beer and Tom Robill and myself, Niels Castro-Larsen, |
| 0:33.9 | where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:38.7 | Andrew and Tom, it's great to have you both here. It's been a while, but how are you doing? |
| 0:44.6 | Tom, I'll start with you. I know you were traveling last night, so you must... |
| 0:48.1 | Yeah, very well, thanks, Niels. Very well. I was in Sweden, and it was interesting to see |
| 0:53.8 | how attitudes to hedge funds seem to be slowly shifting maybe there. |
| 0:59.6 | I'm sure we'll talk about that. And yourself, Andrew, how are you doing? Things are good. Things are good. |
| 1:04.8 | Excuse me. Sorry, we had a great year-end, you know, multi-person session. |
| 1:14.6 | And it'll be very interesting to talk about things that have happened in just the past six weeks, |
| 1:16.9 | which seems like it's been about six months of activity. |
| 1:17.9 | I know. |
| 1:18.3 | I know. |
| 1:18.8 | It's crazy. |
| 1:22.5 | Anyway, we've got actually a pretty strong lineup of various topics. |
| 1:26.5 | As you said, some of that will be inspired from what we talked about in the group conversations, |
| 1:27.8 | and maybe also some new stuff that we normally don't talk so much about in this specific |
| 1:32.2 | series. |
| 1:33.2 | But of course, as we always do, I'm always curious to know kind of what's been on your |
| 1:38.4 | radar, what's caught your attention the last few weeks. |
| 1:42.4 | I'm going to kick it off with you, Andrew. Anything in particular that you've been noticing? |
... |
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