SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 24 January 2026
⏱️ 61 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and series context
01:08 - Inflation back on the radar
02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives
06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation
08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves
10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions
11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends
17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem
18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns
22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block
27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead
30:04 - What commodity trend really means
33:35 - Institutional resistance to commodities
43:51 - Allocation stability versus macro forecasting
45:23 - Fixed income trends, carry, and autocorrelation
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series with Yorf Gitt and me, Niels Castro-Larsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global |
| 0:38.5 | markets through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:42.0 | Yorov, it is wonderful to be back with you this week in the new year. |
| 0:47.0 | How are you doing? |
| 0:47.8 | Have you had a successful start to 2026? |
| 0:51.4 | Happy New Year, Niels. |
| 0:53.1 | Yes, trend has been actually quite good this year, this year, or started at least this |
| 0:57.2 | year. |
| 0:58.4 | And we're going through a couple of big projects in Gresham. |
| 1:03.7 | And it's a very, very busy. |
| 1:05.4 | So it's a very busy start for the year, but a very good one. |
| 1:08.4 | Yeah, always exciting. |
| 1:09.9 | Excellent. |
| 1:10.4 | Good. |
| 1:10.5 | Well, we have also quite a few wonderful topics to discuss. but a very good one. Yeah, always exciting. Excellent. Good. |
| 1:17.3 | Well, we have also quite a few wonderful topics to discuss, thanks to what you brought along. |
| 1:23.5 | So we'll be tackling them in a few minutes, but before, as usual, we do that. |
| 1:29.8 | I'm curious to hear what's been on your radar the last few weeks since we caught up last time. |
| 1:35.4 | Well, actually, I'm going to talk a little bit about work because inflation has been on my radar. |
| 1:38.1 | So I'm going to plug TTIU. |
... |
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