SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 17 January 2026
⏱️ 60 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome
01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026
03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation
07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets
09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention
10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following
12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025
15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year
18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design
23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead
31:08 - Institutional views on trend following
40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research
50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis behavior
56:35 - What theory explains about trend robustness
59:00 - Closing thoughts and next episode
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.0 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:26.8 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Nick Baltas and I, Neil's Castro Blasen, where each week we take the pulse of the global market |
| 0:30.8 | through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:33.3 | And let me also say a really warm welcome if today is your first time you're joining us. |
| 0:38.1 | And if someone who cares about you and your portfolio recommended that you tune in to the podcast, |
| 0:43.7 | I would like to say a big thank you for sharing this episode with your friends and colleagues. |
| 0:48.4 | It really means a lot to us. |
| 0:50.5 | Nick, it is wonderful to be back with you this week. |
| 0:53.8 | I know it's been a hectic week and it's also been a little while since you and I did one of these weekly conversations. |
| 0:59.6 | But how has 2026 been treating you so far? |
| 1:04.7 | So far so good, I would say. |
| 1:08.0 | Good morning, Nils. |
| 1:10.0 | I would even say still happy new year. |
| 1:11.6 | In Greece, we tend to kind of extend the wishes until the end. |
| 1:15.6 | Sure. |
| 1:16.6 | It's been a hectic start of the year, but not necessarily for just for business reasons. |
| 1:22.6 | We were in Greece with family and I'm not sure if you saw like this kind of airspace issue |
| 1:28.9 | that came about in Athens. |
| 1:32.4 | Long story short, there was no possibility that flights could land or take off from the Athens |
| 1:37.6 | airport. |
| 1:38.5 | There was a Sunday on the 4th and we're supposed to be flying back and then flight got cancelled, |
... |
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