SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 10 January 2026
⏱️ 68 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and the start of 2026
03:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following
08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist
12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning
14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery
17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following
23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking
28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now
40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden
49:54 - Prediction versus participation
53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility
01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control
01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking ahead
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:26.4 | Welcome all. Welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Richard Brennan and I, Neil's Castle Larsen, |
| 0:28.7 | where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:33.5 | I want to start out by saying a warm welcome if today is your first time you're joining us. |
| 0:39.1 | And if someone who cares about you and your portfolio recommended that you tune into this podcast, |
| 0:44.4 | I would like to say a big thank you. |
| 0:46.3 | Thank you for sharing this episode with your friends and your colleagues. |
| 0:49.1 | It really means a lot to us. |
| 0:51.5 | Rich, it is wonderful to be back with you in the new year. First episode in |
| 0:56.9 | 26. How are you doing? How is your holiday? A very good holiday, but it's very hot over here. |
| 1:04.5 | So a large regions of Australia at the moment are in a heat wave, you know, 45 degrees, 46 degrees, and into the night, |
| 1:13.1 | you know, it can be 27 to 30 degrees. So quite uncomfortable in a lot of areas and a few fires |
| 1:19.5 | about, but had a good new year, probably too many cherries, I think, and I've just realized |
| 1:25.7 | that maybe I've got to reduce my intake of cherries. |
| 1:28.9 | They're doing bad things to my digestive system. But apart from that, it's been a great new year |
| 1:35.3 | and a great Christmas and happy new year to you and happy new year to all our listeners. |
| 1:41.3 | Yes. Well, happy new to to you as well for sure. |
| 1:44.6 | Just going off script a little bit, you mentioned cherries. |
| 1:47.5 | You know what I've noticed? |
| 1:49.0 | I do like to watch the Tour de France in the summertime. |
... |
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