meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
Top Traders Unplugged

SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 12 July 2025

⏱️ 64 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren’t. This episode isn’t about defending trend - it’s about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we’re getting closer.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:48 - What has been on our radar recently?

07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper

09:45 - Industry performance update

14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures?

23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment

31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key

33:57 - A better alternative trend following?

37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry

44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes

53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate

58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication

59:33 - Defining tracking error

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.

0:13.0

Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.

0:32.8

Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Katie Kaminsky and I, Neil's Castro Blast, where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor.

0:38.0

Katie, it is really great to be back with you this week. How are you doing? What's going on where you are?

0:43.8

Things are good. It's, you know, good weather here in Boston, enjoying the summer.

0:51.8

Chilling in the Boston sun, hopefully. We've got a great lineup today. We've got a few talking points.

0:54.4

We're going to focus on your latest paper on the current state of the CTA and trend following space, but with a little bit of a difference,

0:58.3

I feel, compared to the other papers that have been coming out lately, so that's always great.

1:03.7

We've got a few other things we want to talk about, which are highly relevant for where we are

1:07.5

right now. And so, you know, super excited about our conversation.

1:13.4

But of course, as always, before we even get to that,

1:17.0

I would love to hear what's been on your radar the last few weeks, the last few days, whatever.

1:23.7

I mean, it's been fun.

1:25.5

It's summer.

1:26.1

I mean, I think you and I talk about this a lot. Like, I usually spend some time in Scandinavian the summer. And recently, I was actually here for the 4th of July, which I haven't done in a long time. And I was, it was so fun, so exciting. But I just couldn't believe, I forgot how much fireworks, or like, they're everywhere.

1:45.8

Like, everybody's obsessed, and there were explosions and lots of things happening that were bad as well, too.

1:52.9

So I was like really, I had forgotten, like, sort of remembering when I was a kid and really loving that Fourth of July.

1:59.4

So I think that that's been an interesting thing,

2:01.5

just kind of enjoying the, you know, U.S. holidays. Celebration. Exactly. Exactly. Good stuff.

2:09.8

Well, I've got a few fireworks myself on my radar, but these are more from our industry.

2:17.2

One thing that actually caught my eye,

2:20.0

which I thought that I didn't,

...

Transcript will be available on the free plan in 23 days. Upgrade to see the full transcript now.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.