SI346: Is the Trend Still Your Friend ft. Rob Carver
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 3 May 2025
⏱️ 69 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
This episode is all about understanding the nuances of trend-following and how current market dynamics are shaking things up. Together with Rob Carver, we discuss the turbulence that hit financial markets in April and how that affected Trend Followers, as well as how Rob navigated the last 12 months as a trend follower. Plus, we explore the intriguing topic of safe haven assets, questioning if traditional choices like U.S. treasury bonds still hold up under pressure. We also explore a paper that the discuss the pros and cons of simplicity over complexity in strategy design.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:59 - Society is going crazy
09:47 - Industry performance update
16:22 - How to capture the bounce in trailing stops
23:20 - Industry performance numbers
25:18 - Q1, Niall: What books would you recommend for a young quant entering the CTA space today?
29:05 - Reviewing Rob's annual trend following performance
36:26 - Should we start to rethink our approach to drawdowns?
40:45 - How do we stop investors from projecting market expectations to trend following performance
44:16 - How Rob defines slippage
50:12 - What if we base our trend system on one indicator?
54:18 - Does this trend following thing still work?
58:56 - Getting to know the founders of trend...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:32.9 | Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with Rob Carver and I, Neels Castelastel Lastin, where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:37.6 | Rob, it is wonderful to be back with you this week. It's been a little while. Hope you are well. |
| 0:39.6 | How are things in the UK? |
| 0:41.9 | Hot and sweaty. |
| 0:45.8 | That's a little bit early for hot and sweaty. Yeah. |
| 0:46.2 | My wife and I went to France over the Easter holidays to get some sunshine, |
| 0:50.9 | but it turns out we needn't have bothered because there's plenty of air as well. |
| 0:53.9 | Well, that's global warming for you, I guess. Anyway. get some sunshine, but it turns out we needn't have bothered because there's plenty here as well. |
| 0:56.6 | That's global warming for you, I guess. |
| 1:03.2 | Anyways, we've got a few topics lined up for today. |
| 1:09.1 | It is, of course, the 2nd of May, meaning there will be some focus on the month of April, |
| 1:12.0 | which in our world was interesting. Did anything happen in April? |
| 1:12.9 | It was quite a quiet month. |
| 1:14.2 | If you look at the indices, it didn't look like much happened, but... |
| 1:17.8 | No, I mean, the S&P was flat really much, right? |
| 1:19.6 | So I guess nothing happened. |
| 1:20.5 | Exactly. |
| 1:21.4 | Anyways, so we got that. |
| 1:22.7 | We got a few other topics, will be tackling and then of course |
| 1:29.0 | as we always start out with |
... |
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