SI333: Convexity - The Trend Following Game Changer! ft. Richard Brennan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 1 February 2025
⏱️ 73 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Most investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence.
If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of risk, reward, and the powerful edge convexity can give your portfolio!
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:49 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:20 - Industry performance update
11:10 - Why does convexity matter for trend following?
36:13 - What do we actually mean by convexity?
42:04 - Sharpe world - the pitfalls of today's economy
52:30 - Why risk and volatility can feel like the same thing
56:08 - The core of trend following
58:22 - Why open trade equity makes no sense for managers
01:00:03 - The business of trend following
01:01:37 - The exponential potential of trend following
01:08:05 - The times have changed - why is trend following more important than ever?
01:11:22 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:26.6 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Richard Brennan and I, Niels Karstallasen, where each week we take the pulse of the global |
| 0:31.0 | market through the lens of a rules-based investor. And I also want to say a warm welcome |
| 0:36.7 | if today is the first time you're joining. |
| 0:39.2 | And if someone who cares about you and your portfolio recommended that you tune into the podcast, |
| 0:45.1 | I want to say a big thank you for sharing the episode with your friends and colleagues. |
| 0:49.3 | It really means a lot to us. Rich, it is so great to be back with you this week. How are you doing down |
| 0:57.1 | under? Very good, Neils. I know you've been busy with your travelling, but I've been stuck here |
| 1:01.4 | in the heat down in Australia. So we've got the monsoon coming in and into Queensland and |
| 1:06.9 | lots of tropical lows about, so impending cyclones coming, and it's miserably hot. |
| 1:13.3 | But apart from that, Neil, everything's good. |
| 1:16.0 | Okay, that's good to hear. |
| 1:17.7 | You know, I was thinking about the big news from your part of the world. |
| 1:21.3 | Of course, the big news from my part of the world is still this thing about sort of |
| 1:25.3 | Greenland and Denmark, and even in the airport as I was flying back from Miami, |
| 1:30.5 | the guy who was checking me and said, |
| 1:32.1 | so what's happening with Greenland? |
| 1:33.7 | So it's kind of funny. |
| 1:35.2 | And I will say one thing, if nothing else, |
| 1:37.4 | the PR for small country like that is quite extraordinary. |
| 1:43.5 | So anyways, maybe we can have a positive spin on that |
... |
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