SI330: Yield Storm Ahead: Preparing for a New Era ft. Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 11 January 2025

⏱️ 61 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Together with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and potential counter-trend rallies, this episode provides a thought-provoking look at the complexities facing investors right now.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:19 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:39 - Industry performance update

08:34 - Long term skew in vol markets is causing trouble

13:41 - Approaching OPEX - what is in sight?

21:28 - Does a strong S&P500 performance indicate an incoming crisis?

24:08 - Are we approaching a counter trend rally?

26:33 - It's getting hard to hedge

35:16 - Investors are long without realizing it

38:34 - We need a shadow Fed President

43:23 - We are in a leadership vacuum

47:58 - Early signs of improvement in China?

55:31 -...

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing
0:07.2	and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:13.2	Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.
0:33.0	Welcome all welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Jim Kazang and I, Neil's Castlearson, where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a roles-based investor.
0:38.2	Jim, it is wonderful to be back with you this week. Be late it, happy birthday, I have to say.
0:40.4	And it's been a little while as well.
0:41.7	So how are you doing?
0:44.5	Has it been an exciting start for you to the new year?
0:46.3	Yeah, thanks for the birthday wishes.
0:51.4	Yeah, I had a wonderful last couple weeks all over the U.S., but finally in the East Coast with my son kind of touring boarding schools
0:56.7	and whatnot, and that was the best birthday present I could ask for. So, fantastic.
1:00.2	Good start to the year. Good end of the year for us here at Kai, and we're really excited for the
1:07.6	yearhead. Yeah, no, absolutely. And we're going to certainly dive into a lot of really good topics that you've laid out today.
1:14.7	And it's not like anything is happening in the world right now.
1:17.3	So there's quite a few things to talk about.
1:19.5	But before we do that, and this could be nothing to do with markets, could be whatever
1:24.0	you have been thinking about.
1:26.0	I'm always curious what's been on your radar for the last few weeks, at least.
1:31.5	Yeah, I think one of the biggest things is when I was on the East Coast, recently, I went to an endowment conference.
1:39.0	I won't speak to kind of what endowment was heading it.
1:42.5	But it just struck me with, you know, 100 seasoned
1:46.5	professionals in the room at a prestigious endowment. How much group think there was. How not open to
	...

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