SI327: 2024's Biggest Investment & Trend Following Insights (Part 1)
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 21 December 2024
⏱️ 59 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal reflections on our investment strategies and predictions for 2025.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:22 - Introduction to the group conversations
02:33 - A trend following recap of 2024
13:07 - A new president - how does it impact geopolitics?
17:21 - What role crowding has played in 2024
24:00 - Do less liquid markets trend more?
32:32 - Have markets become less efficient over time?
40:28 - Are we actually using AI in our work?
46:00 - What was the biggest mistake we learned in 2024?
49:21 - Why have we experienced such a high dispersion in 2024?
57:05 - Wrapping up
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:26.7 | Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Katie Kavinsky, Jim Kassan, Rob Carver, Mark Rathamsinski, Richard Brennan, Alan Dunn, Nick |
| 0:33.3 | Balthas, Andrew Beer, and I, Niels Castroblassen. And as you can tell from this introduction, today and next week will be very special episodes |
| 0:41.2 | because it's that time of the year where all nine of us get together for one big conversation |
| 0:47.0 | and debate. |
| 0:48.4 | So firstly, let me start by thanking all of you for making the time for this extended recording |
| 0:52.7 | today, which I really have been looking forward to. And of course, for all the time for this extended recording today, which I really have been looking |
| 0:54.5 | forward to. And of course, for all the time and energy you have put into making the weekly |
| 0:59.9 | episodes that we have published this year, it means a lot to me, and based on the feedback |
| 1:04.4 | we get, I know it means a lot to our community. We are recording today on December 4th, and this |
| 1:10.2 | conversation will be split into two parts |
| 1:12.3 | and published on December 21st and December 28th. We've got a great lineup of topics that we |
| 1:18.6 | shared with each other beforehand and to mention just some of the themes that we will cover |
| 1:23.0 | today and next week in part two here are some of the headlines. The biggest investment mistakes of |
| 1:29.1 | 2024. The US dollar under the new Trump administration. The efficacy of replicating |
| 1:35.6 | trend following returns. The mean bubble. Manage futures beta, does it exist? The return |
| 1:41.9 | dispersion between CTAs this year, the role of social media in |
| 1:46.3 | raising AUM, are systematic strategies becoming overcrowded, and are markets becoming less efficient? |
| 1:54.7 | So, as you can hear, we have a really packed agenda, so let's dive straight into it. |
| 1:59.5 | The format of the conversation today will be that |
... |
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