SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 715 Ratings
🗓️ 28 September 2024
⏱️ 64 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:17 - Industry performance update
05:36 - Seasonality in markets
17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?
21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets
25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?
35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?
39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?
46:19 - A global conflict perspective
50:40 - How the election might impact commodities
52:06 - Migration policy and its effect on inflation
53:57 - How markets might trade right after the election is over
57:13 - Dangerous periods ahead?
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:27.9 | Welcome back to the latest edition of TopTraders Unplugged Systematic Investor, where we take the pulse of the markets from the perspective of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:32.1 | It's Alan Dunn sitting in for Neals again this week and the lives will be joined by Chem. |
| 0:37.4 | Chem, how are you? Doing great. Here comes fall. sitting in for Nealz again this week and the lives to be joined by Chem. |
| 0:38.0 | Chem, how are you? |
| 0:39.6 | Doing great. |
| 0:41.2 | Here comes fall. |
| 0:44.6 | Interesting times, election a month away. |
| 0:47.7 | So getting back in the swing just like everybody else. |
| 0:48.8 | Good self. |
| 0:52.5 | Yeah, as I say, the election is coming into view very quickly. So definitely a good time to be speaking to you |
| 0:55.9 | with your US perspective. We've a lot to go through from a macro and a flows perspective. |
| 1:02.1 | A lot of interesting stuff going on in markets this week with China. Unvailing the big bazooka, |
| 1:07.6 | as it's been called, or whether it is a big bazook or not, we'll talk about. |
| 1:12.0 | And as you say, election, commodity markets, a lot of stuff going on in markets. |
| 1:16.6 | So rather than disrupting the flow of the conversation, I thought we might do our trend following recap straight off the bat today. |
| 1:25.4 | So looking at performance so far this month, positive performance |
| 1:28.8 | in the CTA world, Sochchen trend up 1.45% as of Wednesday of this week and the Sochchchens |
| 1:37.0 | Ct index up 1.35%. So positive month for CTAs and that's bringing the year to date number to |
| 1:43.6 | 2.7 and 2.75% for the CTA and the |
| 1:47.9 | trend indices respectively. So I think generally from a trend following managed futures perspective, |
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