4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 25 September 2024
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.
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Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published
06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis
09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?
17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?
23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?
30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated
32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes
34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?
37:58 - A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?
45:09 -...
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0:00.0 | It's possible in a world where we have an inflationary shock that the response isn't sufficient to stabilize markets, in which case central banks, you know, and maybe not completely lose control, |
0:21.5 | but inflation becomes unanchored. |
0:24.6 | So you've got the, I guess, the fundamental inflationary push of higher debt, needing to inflate |
0:30.4 | that away. |
0:31.0 | And then you've got maybe the monetary policy side of it where central bank, the scale of |
0:36.9 | central bank intervention needs to be great, |
0:39.4 | it's an inflationary shock, and it doesn't work that you've got kind of a de-anchoring of |
0:45.2 | inflation expectations. Obviously, we haven't had that yet, but those are possibilities, and I think |
0:49.8 | they're all consistent with a world of rising commodity prices, rising gold prices, etc. So I feel like |
0:58.0 | all those three things do fit together. Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest |
1:06.4 | traders. Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. |
1:11.3 | Imagine no more. |
1:13.3 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, |
1:19.6 | so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level. |
1:24.6 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
1:28.6 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance |
1:33.1 | does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there's |
1:38.4 | a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request |
1:42.9 | and understand the specific risks |
1:45.0 | from the investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions. |
1:49.4 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson. |
1:59.0 | Welcome and welcome back to another edition of our Global Macro Series, where today I'm joined by another host of the series, namely Alan Dunn, and as well as a host of the Ideas Lab series and author of the book, The Wise of Karen, Kevin Coldine, who's also a guest on today's episode. |
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