SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 715 Ratings
🗓️ 6 July 2024
⏱️ 61 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:59 - Industry performance update
06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply
09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade
11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?
13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?
19:57 - When does it all end?
24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?
27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?
33:09 - What will drive the increasing volatility?
35:10 - The election from a volatility perspective
42:46 - Volatility from a market pricing perspective
45:36 - How will a win for Trump impact the economy?
47:56 - Looking outside of the U.S.
53:06 - Similar volatility supply dynamics in Europe?
54:52 - Good times ahead for gold?
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.0 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.0 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:28.9 | Welcome back to Top Twitterriters Unploked, where each week we take the pulse of the markets from the perspective of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:34.1 | It's Alan Dunn here again this week, sitting in for Neals for the second week while he's traveling. |
| 0:37.6 | Niels will be back next week. But today, I'm delighted to be joined by Chem. Chem, how are you? Great. Good to be here. I love that we get a little mashup this time. |
| 0:43.1 | Two guests as hosts should be a lot of fun. Exactly. Looking forward to us. So we've a lot to get |
| 0:51.4 | through. I know a lot of very interesting macro topics and there's a lot of |
| 0:56.6 | elections going on around the world at the moment. So we're going to touch on that as well. |
| 1:01.2 | But maybe before I get into what's on your radar, we might just do quick update on trend following |
| 1:06.0 | performance just to get that in there. So obviously it's been early start of the week |
| 1:12.0 | and it's been a shortened week already, obviously, with the holidays. |
| 1:15.1 | But based on the most recent data, |
| 1:17.5 | Sochgen trend, but a positive start to the month, |
| 1:22.6 | the suction trend up 0.66% on the month and up 9.4% on the year and the Soxgiencd index up 0.66% on the month and up 9.4% on the year. And the StocktonCG index up 0.54% on the month |
| 1:32.2 | and year to date up 7.81%. Obviously early in the month, I think from a trend following perspective, |
| 1:38.1 | ongoing weakness in the end, certainly one of the key drivers there. And also obviously, |
| 1:43.7 | the equity market rally |
| 1:45.2 | continuing bonds quite choppy from your perspective shem early in the month but has seen anything |
| 1:50.6 | interesting from a performance perspective what are your thoughts yeah i mean on my end the story |
| 1:57.6 | this summer um obviously near dear to my my heart is dispersion, right? |
| 2:04.0 | The fact that we're seeing, you don't hear a lot about it, but you're seeing record dispersion. |
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