GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 3 July 2024
⏱️ 57 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm
04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule
08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?
12:37 - Putting the data together
18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?
23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?
29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?
35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate
40:42 - The state of physical...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Like if it were going to break, it's this time. |
| 0:10.0 | It's where in this tricky place of, you don't want to, like, oh, use the rules of thumb, use the rules of thumb. |
| 0:16.0 | This time is different. Be careful. We've gotten burned. If we were to, like like this time is like every other time that really |
| 0:22.6 | you know gave some bad insights but then as we get further and further away from some of the |
| 0:28.1 | very unusual features of the cycle well then some of those more usual rules of thumb you |
| 0:37.1 | really want to pay attention to them. |
| 0:39.7 | We don't quite know what to trust. |
| 0:43.6 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. |
| 0:47.4 | Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. |
| 0:51.9 | Imagine no more. |
| 0:53.8 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn |
| 0:57.5 | from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager due diligence |
| 1:01.9 | or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's conversation, remember to |
| 1:07.0 | keep two things in mind. All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past |
| 1:12.7 | performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. |
| 1:17.3 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, |
| 1:21.9 | and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about |
| 1:26.4 | their product before you make |
| 1:27.9 | investment decisions. Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:39.1 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing |
| 1:45.1 | from a global macro perspective. |
| 1:47.3 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting, as well as intellectually challenging, |
... |
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