SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 715 Ratings
🗓️ 19 August 2023
⏱️ 68 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:56 - What has caught Cem's attention recently?
03:14 - Volatility and seasonal patterns
08:27 - Industry performance update
09:34 - Is vol trading predictable?
17:15 - Why are vol spikes becoming shorter?
20:19 - Cem's take on the fourth turning
33:12 - Why is demographics so critical today?
39:04 - A tug of war between flows and macro
50:28 - A new all time high for stocks?
52:07 - Major moves in markets
01:00:58 - Too bullish too soon?
01:03:03 - Be flexible, be water
01:06:07 - Thanks for listening
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:32.9 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with Jim Kassan and I, Neil's Castablaston, where each week we take the polls of the global markets through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:39.0 | Jim, great to be back with you, as always. It's been a busy few weeks since we last spoke. |
| 0:39.5 | How are you doing? |
| 0:41.0 | Doing well. |
| 0:44.8 | This summer is at its best part here in Chicago. |
| 0:50.0 | So we're enjoying the weather here, and school's about to start. |
| 0:55.8 | So we're going to the fall, which I think has not only an effect on us as humans, but obviously the markets as well. |
| 0:57.7 | Yeah, no, absolutely. |
| 1:02.3 | Now, we've got a really good lineup, very expansive. |
| 1:06.2 | We probably won't get to all of the points, but we'll be tackling as many as we can. |
| 1:13.3 | But before we do that, I always like to know kind of what's been on your radar the last few weeks. |
| 1:18.5 | There's so much noise out there. I was just wondering if there's anything that caught your attention other than the topics, of course, we're going to be speaking about. |
| 1:22.6 | Yeah, I think the biggest stuff is from 30,000 feet, the kind of push and pull that we see from a macro kind of overhang, |
| 1:30.8 | things that move much slower, bigger liquidity issues, the news that keeps coming out tied |
| 1:35.9 | to those bigger structural issues, and then the underlying flows, which have been very, |
| 1:41.5 | very supportive, actually, in the context of that big macro |
| 1:45.8 | liquidity kind of issue. So that push and pull, I think, is that tug-of-war, which we've seen a lot |
| 1:51.5 | over the last several years, is particularly becoming more prominent, more dynamic. |
| 1:57.4 | It's a sumo market. These guys are really big pushing back and forth something |
... |
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