SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 19 November 2022
⏱️ 70 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:52 - What happened this week?
07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve?
11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?
14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?
16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity
18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?
18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?
22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers
30:11 - Asset...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:27.1 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Jim Kasang and I, Neil's Castleblassen, |
| 0:29.3 | where each week we take the pulse of the global market |
| 0:31.7 | through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:34.1 | If you're new to the show, I hope that today's episode |
| 0:36.5 | will trigger your curiosity enough |
| 0:38.0 | to check out the back catalog and listen to some of the past episodes that you may have missed, |
| 0:42.7 | like my conversation with Rich last week, where we laid out the key reasons why the specific |
| 0:48.2 | correlation profile that trend following offers investors is really unique. |
| 0:52.5 | And if we only say we are non-correlated, |
| 0:55.6 | we are in fact not really doing ourselves justice. |
| 0:59.0 | There is more to the reason that trend following |
| 1:01.3 | cannot only enhance the returns of traditional portfolios, |
| 1:04.5 | but also at the same time reduce the risk of the portfolio. |
| 1:07.0 | And it's all explained in our conversation last week. |
| 1:09.8 | Also, I would encourage you to listen to the midweek episode |
| 1:12.2 | where I had the pleasure of speaking to Simon Hunt, |
| 1:14.8 | who has spent decades in the copper industry |
| 1:17.3 | and spend a ton of time in China. |
| 1:19.7 | So he has a unique perspective on markets and geopolitics, |
... |
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