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Top Traders Unplugged

GM29: What if the World isn't Ending? ft. Marko Papic

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 23 November 2022

⏱️ 79 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic

10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?

14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?

21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?

25:42 - What actually causes recessions?

32:33 - Using constraints based analysis

37:15 - What is the median voter theory?

40:33 - Are median voters controlled by...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

All political systems decline and they have to revitalize themselves through some conflict.

0:14.0

You know, it doesn't have to be war, but we're going to choose war in Ukraine.

0:18.0

And then he said in this op-ed, like, look, you people in the West, you do the same. You know, you did in Iraq, you did in Afghanistan, so we're going to do it in Ukraine. And then he said in this op-ed, like, look, you people in the West, like, you do the same.

0:21.8

You know, you did it in Iraq. You did in Afghanistan. So we're going to do it in Ukraine.

0:24.8

And I think what he was pointing to is the reason that Putin ultimately entered Ukraine.

0:30.5

Now, this is investment relevant, Harry. This isn't just us having a philosophical debate.

0:35.1

It's investment relevant because if he just went in there because his

0:38.1

balls went down, then he's going to get out before the polls go down further because the war

0:43.1

has now turned wrong. And this is extremely investment relevant. And it's the foundation of my thesis

0:49.2

that the war probably is going to enter stasis. Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders.

0:58.0

Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures.

1:02.0

Imagine no more.

1:04.0

Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world,

1:10.0

so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level.

1:14.9

Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind.

1:18.9

All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance.

1:27.6

Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies,

1:31.9

and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product

1:37.3

before you make investment decisions.

1:39.7

Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson.

1:55.3

Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting,

2:02.8

as well as intellectually challenging, but also very important given where we are in the global

...

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