SI187: Why Commodities & Why Now ft. Tim Pickering
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 9 April 2022
⏱️ 70 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this week’s episode, Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital, joins me to discuss why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio, how to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes, why he created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index, the role and importance of ESG in commodities trading, how commodity futures can be used as a risk mitigation tool, why Ukraine is so important for commodities, how to effectively protect yourself against inflation and much more
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In this episode, we discuss:
- Why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio
- How to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes
- How ESG and commodities trading is closely related
- Whether to embrace Chinese commodity markets
- Why the war in Ukraine is so important for commodities
- Strategies for protecting yourself against inflation
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:40 - What has caught Tim and Niels’ attention recently?
06:33 - What has happened since last Niels and Tim spoke in 2014?
11:45 - Has Tim made any major research discoveries since last time?
19:31 - Why commodities and why now?
30:50 - How much room for liquidity is there in the markets?
37:32 - Tim’s thoughts on the LME
44:31 - Thoughts on commodity exposure and futures
51:51 - Why is Ukraine so important for commodities?
01:00:16 - Risk mitigation strategies at big pension plans
01:07:08 - Update on performance
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.0 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:27.4 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Tim Pickering and I, Niels Castor Larsen, |
| 0:29.8 | where we each week take the pulse of the global market |
| 0:32.3 | through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:35.2 | Now, for those of you who may not recall, |
| 0:37.8 | Tim was actually one of my very first guests back in December 2014, |
| 0:41.9 | episode 53 and 54, |
| 0:43.8 | and I think we managed to pick pretty much the high of the commodity markets |
| 0:47.5 | with our episodes, |
| 0:48.9 | which is, of course, Tim's area of expertise, |
| 0:52.0 | as you will hear today. |
| 0:53.8 | If you're new to the show, I hope today's episode |
| 0:56.3 | will trigger your curiosity enough to check back the back catalogue and listen to all the past |
| 1:01.5 | episodes that you may have missed, like my conversation with Richard last week, where we really |
| 1:06.5 | tried hard to settle the debate, whether to dynamically adjust your position size or not. |
| 1:12.5 | Not sure we managed to agree on anything, but it was a lively conversation without a doubt. |
| 1:18.4 | And it also included, by the way, my thesis for why I think Trendfalling could be returning to |
| 1:23.7 | its golden era of the 70s, 80s and 90s. |
| 1:27.4 | If you missed that one, I strongly suggest you |
| 1:30.0 | listen to it after this conversation. Now, as you may know, the aim of the podcast is to inspire |
| 1:36.0 | you as an investor. We want to be provocative without being polarizing. We want to challenge |
... |
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