SI172: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part One ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 25 December 2021
⏱️ 88 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Some of the reasons for being a systematic investor
- The case for Trend Following as the only strategy in your portfolio
- Tips for effective diversification
- Why you should be Hunting Outliers
- How Trend Following performance might look like in the future
- If and when you should override your trading rules
- Staying ready for unexpected shocks in the markets
- Gauging the effectiveness of adjustments to a system
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:42 - ‘Has classical Trend Following returned to peak performance’?
05:16 - How do you see the longer-term performance of Trend Following heading?
08:02 - Why not Trend Following as the main, or perhaps only, component of a portfolio?
28:01 - When should you manually override your trading system?
46:56 - How to setup a system to deal with unexpected volatility
01:03:49 - How to know if your research changes are actually improvements
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Seabert, and Nealz Kostrup Larson on their raw and honest |
| 0:07.3 | journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent |
| 0:12.3 | yet often overlooked investment strategy. Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:22.8 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with |
| 0:26.6 | Jerry Parker, Rob Carver, Mark Resimzinski, Richard Brennan, Moj Seabert and I, |
| 0:31.4 | Niels Karz Larsson, where each week we take the pulse of the global markets through |
| 0:35.6 | the lens of a rules-based investor. Now today and next week will be very special episodes indeed because it's the first time |
| 0:42.3 | that we're all together for one big conversation and debate. |
| 0:45.6 | As you know, this podcast series is all about voicing our differences on the one topic that |
| 0:50.1 | brings us together, namely systematic investing using the often overlooked but very |
| 0:55.2 | robust strategy of trend following. |
| 0:57.2 | We are recording on December 15th and this conversation will be split into two parts |
| 1:02.2 | and published on December 25th and January 1st and therefore there will of course not be |
| 1:07.8 | any market wrap or performance updates. Now we have a long list of great |
| 1:12.3 | topics that we'll be focusing on. But before we kick it off with the first topic, perhaps |
| 1:17.6 | we can do maybe a quick round with some of you and just ask what kind of preparations |
| 1:23.2 | you've been doing for this debate. Any special training for this conversation? Of course, if you're wearing any protective gear |
| 1:29.4 | and looking at all of you, I think I have to go to Rob first |
| 1:32.2 | because you do seem to have brought along some protective gear today. |
| 1:36.1 | How are you doing, Rob? |
| 1:37.1 | I'm disappointed that no one else has made the effort. |
| 1:39.8 | So this is a Christmas episode. |
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