SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft. Moritz Seibert
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 5 September 2021
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial
- Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable
- Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods
- Some good measures for monitoring risk
- Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing
- Suitable backtesting software for retail investors
- How to approach negative interest rates with your broker
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts
03:21 - Macro recap from Niels
05:38 - Weekly review of returns
18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests
26:42 - Q1 & Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same?
41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way out of a correction over stocks making new all time highs?
45:16 - Q4; James: Can you recommend a software with backtesting capabilities, suitable for retail investors?
47:10 - Q5; Sebastien: How do you deal with negative interest rates from your broker?
51:14 - Q6; Mikhail: Is it worth varying the lengths of time being backtested rather than just, for example, backtesting data over the last 50 years?
57:39 - Thoughts on Germany’s upcoming election and its possible effects on the markets
01:02:08 - Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Neil's Kostrup Larson on their raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:15.1 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:23.5 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with |
| 0:27.3 | Mord Seber and I, Neil's Kastr Blasen, where each week we take the pulse of the global |
| 0:31.9 | market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:35.2 | If you're new to the show, let me start by saying welcome, |
| 0:38.1 | with the hope that today's episode will trigger your curiosity |
| 0:40.7 | about systematic trend following as an investment strategy, |
| 0:44.4 | enough to check out the back catalog and listen to the past episodes |
| 0:48.3 | that you may have missed, like last week's episode with Richard, |
| 0:52.0 | where we discussed all things back testing and forward testing |
| 0:55.2 | and everything in between. I really think it was something that a lot of listeners think is |
| 1:00.6 | important. So if you missed it, I invite you to go back and check it out. Let me also give a |
| 1:07.8 | quick shout out to those of you who spent a few minutes this week leaving a rating and review. |
| 1:13.1 | I noticed some great ones from Joey Yaz's Hypnosis 8 and Ernst Mango, |
| 1:20.1 | just to name a few, you should know that I do read all of them and I post many of them on the website |
| 1:25.8 | and we're very grateful for the help |
| 1:28.7 | that you give us in order to grow the podcast. Moritz, you're back from holiday. How are you? |
| 1:34.7 | Yeah, back from Italy since, I don't know, 12, 18 hours or something like that. So got back last |
| 1:41.7 | night. It's just been great to be out of the country. |
| 1:44.5 | We've had a very wet and cold summer here in Bavaria. |
| 1:49.8 | Not sure if that's also true for Zuck, where you live, Niels. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.