SI136: When Investments Become A Religion ft. Jerry Parker
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 18 April 2021
⏱️ 72 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investments
- Coinbase's recent stock market listing
- Position sizing using historical volatility
- Buy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periods
- Mean Reversion trading versus Trend-based trading
- The infamous Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:36 - Macro recap from Niels
04:37 - Weekly review of returns
09:37 - A question for Jerry, from Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?
24:44 - ‘Trend Strength’ signals, what they are, and if you should use them
26:52 - Whether Trend Followers do actually make market predictions
35:49 - A question for Jerry from Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?
40:27 - Meb Faber’s recent poll on how much should be allocated to Trend Following
48:31 - Q1; Danny: How do you find new positions to trade?
53:09 - Q2; Mathew: How do you define a longer-term timeframe?
01:00:44 - Performance recap
01:01:50 - Jerry asks Niels to discuss the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kostrup Larson on their raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:15.1 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:23.0 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with |
| 0:27.3 | Jerry Parker and me, Neil's Castor Larsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global |
| 0:31.1 | market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:34.3 | For those who are you who are regular listeners, our conversations are intended to give you learning |
| 0:40.0 | and growth as rules-based investors. |
| 0:42.6 | And if you're new to the show, we hope that today's episode will trigger your curiosity |
| 0:46.6 | to check out the back catalog and listen to past episodes that you may have missed. |
| 0:51.7 | Like last week's episode with Moritz, where we really got |
| 0:54.7 | into how you can gain access to some quite liquid commodity markets in China, but also the |
| 1:01.5 | pros and the cons in doing so. And we discussed the common course of hedge fund blowups. So if you |
| 1:07.8 | missed that episode, I invite you to go back and check it out. |
| 1:11.8 | Jerry, as always, great to be back with you this week. |
| 1:14.9 | How are you doing? |
| 1:15.7 | How are things where you are? |
| 1:17.3 | Oh, things are great here in Florida. |
| 1:19.3 | Very nice weather. |
| 1:20.4 | Just got back from the Masters golf tournament last weekend, and that was a lot of fun. |
| 1:26.3 | And the markets have continued to be very favorable for trends so |
| 1:30.9 | that always just boost my mood for some reason i know the feeling i know the feeling anyways just a few |
| 1:37.0 | things that i found interesting from this week so in terms of market wrap i did think that it was there |
... |
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