SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 21 March 2021
⏱️ 89 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.
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In this episode, we discuss:
- Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investing
- Interest rates and their effects on the trading markets
- How correlations can increase volatility
- The benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to policy-making
- The common perils of 'recency bias'
- Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returns
- The hidden costs behind supposed 'low cost' funds
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:14 – Macro recap from Niels
06:36 – Weekly review of performance
57:46 – Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance?
1:08:29 – Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a CTA or Trend Following ETF?
1:14:42 – Q3; Craig: Do you think CTAs are missing out by not trading small-cap crypto, and do you think they will eventually?
01:24:03 – Benchmark performance update
01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo
01:25:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette Declercq
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Neil's Kostrup Larson on their |
| 0:06.3 | raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most |
| 0:11.0 | dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:15.1 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:22.6 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investors |
| 0:26.1 | series with Mark Rissomzinski and I, Neil's Kastro Larson, where each week we take the |
| 0:31.1 | pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:35.3 | For those of you who are regular listeners, our conversations are intended to motivate and inspire you to continue your rules-based investor. For those of you who are regular listeners, our conversations are intended to motivate |
| 0:39.0 | and inspire you to continue your rules-based investing journey. |
| 0:43.3 | And if you're new to the show, |
| 0:44.6 | we hope that today's episode will trigger your appetite |
| 0:47.3 | to learn more by diving into the back catalog |
| 0:50.6 | and listen to all of the past episodes that you may have missed, like last week's |
| 0:55.4 | episode with Moritz, where we had a good discussion about a really important part of what we |
| 1:00.6 | as managers do, which is often overlooked, by the way, and that is what to do with all the cash |
| 1:07.0 | we don't post as margin for our trading. i shared some really key insights that i had received |
| 1:12.5 | from our cash manager at dun named halliard asset management which i hope you will go back and listen |
| 1:18.5 | to mark great to be back with you this week how are you doing how are things shaping out where you |
| 1:24.4 | are good it's good to talk to you again you again. It's been a short time since |
| 1:29.2 | the last time we talk. So we usually do it about a month. So very much focused in on March |
| 1:35.7 | Madness. I don't know if your European audiences are excited about college basketball, |
| 1:41.9 | but in the U.S., this is a premier sports event. My school won last, |
... |
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