SI128: Investing during Inflationary or Deflationary periods ft. Jerry Parker
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 22 February 2021
⏱️ 78 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.
Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:28 – Macro recap from Niels
03:30 – Weekly review of performance
30:49 – Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program? What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s?
59:43 – Q1; Mohit: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends?
01:02:36 – Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’ experiment?
01:13:25 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:24 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Dr Andrew Huberman on the Lewis Howes Podcast
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kostrup Larson on their raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:15.1 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:21.7 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with |
| 0:25.6 | Jerry Parker and me, Niels Castro-Larsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global |
| 0:30.0 | market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:32.9 | For those of you who are regular listeners, our conversations are intended to keep you |
| 0:37.0 | focused and inspired to continue your rules-based investing journey. |
| 0:40.8 | And if you're new to the show, we hope that today's episode will trigger your curiosity |
| 0:45.2 | to check out the back catalog and listen to past episodes that you may have missed. |
| 0:50.3 | Like last week's episode, Will Moritz, where we dived into a few different topics like the stealth |
| 0:55.8 | inflation that we are seeing and what that may mean for your investments. Jerry, great to be back |
| 1:02.5 | with you this week. How are you doing? How are things where you are? Things are great. Thanks for |
| 1:06.9 | having me. It's good to be back. There's a lot going on, a lot of good market, a lot of good |
| 1:11.6 | trends continuing. So I try not to look at the charts too much and look at the quotes too |
| 1:16.9 | much. I don't want to jinx myself. Yes, and we've got a pretty full program today. We've got lots of |
| 1:22.8 | topics, not least thanks to you. And so it'll be fun. In terms of kind of a market wrap for the week, |
| 1:31.0 | I would say we saw another rounder selling pressure in the 10 year and the 30 year treasuries, |
| 1:37.8 | now reaching yields of 1.34 and 2.13 respectively. And that's pretty close to a one-year high. |
| 1:45.9 | And they are up about, let me see here. |
| 1:48.9 | So about 50 basis points higher on the 10-year from last summer |
| 1:52.3 | and almost a percent higher really now in the 30-year. |
| 1:56.7 | Of course, ironically, we saw at the same time |
... |
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