Fancy a fever tree in a glass with ice and rum.

You thought I was going to say gin, didn't you?

But I'm talking about fever tree ginger beer,

made from three gingers for that perfect blend of freshness, sweetness and spiciness,

delicious with rum or on its own.

Fever tree ginger beer mix with the best.

Mmm, that spices things out.

Hello and welcome to the Political Party Daily.

I'm delighted to be joined on this episode by every political fan's favourite expert, Sir John Curtis,

because Star of Election Night, his brain is incredible.

I mean, there's so much in this, there's so much analysis.

Oh my word, you run yourself a bath, get a bar of chocolate and enjoy this because it's so good.

I'm not going to clog up your ears with any more time because you need it all for John Curtis.

I began by asking him who was going to win the election.

Well, I think given that the opinion polls three weeks out,

put the Conservatives 12 or 13 points ahead,

and the minimum lead we now have an opinion poll is at eight points,

that at this point at least the Conservatives are clearly the favourites to win this election.

I would say they're around two to one on, around a 66 percent chance.

That lead, of course, sounds large.

It's partly inflated by the fact that the Brexit party is not now standing in Conservative held seats,

and that will probably mean the Conservatives gaining votes that won't make any difference to the outcome in terms of seats,

...